Saudi Real Estate Transaction Volume
Saudi real estate transactions totaled SAR 123.8 billion ($32.9 billion) in the first half of 2025 alone, with residential transactions accounting for 63 percent of volume at 93,700 transactions — a 7 percent year-on-year increase, according to Mordor Intelligence. The full national real estate market is valued at $72.84 billion in 2026, with a projected CAGR of 7.17 percent to $102.96 billion by 2031. The residential segment alone is valued at $164.85 billion, projected to reach $227.12 billion by 2031. Saudi Arabia’s $1.3 trillion in combined mega-project allocations ensures sustained demand across housing, hospitality, retail, and offices well past 2040.
The transaction volume growth reflects the convergence of multiple demand drivers: the government-mandated relocation of regional corporate headquarters to Riyadh, a population of 35.3 million growing at 4.7 percent in 2024 (with projected growth of 2.0 percent in 2025-2026), annual housing demand of 115,000 homes according to Sands of Wealth analysis, mortgage market expansion under SRC’s secondary market operations, and mega-project construction. The economy supports this trajectory: real GDP grew 4.3 percent in the first nine months of 2025, non-oil sector growth reached 5.1 percent, and the IMF projects 4.0 percent growth for both 2025 and 2026 according to Global Property Guide.
Volume Breakdown by City
Riyadh: SAR 142 billion (47% of national volume), up 24.3% YoY. Riyadh’s dominance reflects the headquarters relocation mandate — over 300 multinational corporations have established or are establishing regional headquarters in the capital, driving demand for both commercial office space and executive residential properties. The Riyadh Real Estate Indicator shows 28,400 residential transactions and 4,200 commercial transactions in Q4 2025 alone.
Jeddah: SAR 68 billion (22.5% of national volume), up 14.1% YoY. Jeddah’s growth is driven by the Jeddah Central redevelopment project ($20 billion waterfront development), continued Red Sea coastal corridor demand, and the city’s role as the gateway to the Holy Sites tourism economy. Residential transactions dominate, with apartment sales outpacing villa transactions for the first time — a structural shift reflecting densification policies.
Eastern Province (Dammam/Dhahran/Khobar): SAR 44 billion (14.6% of national volume), up 11.8% YoY. The Eastern Province market is anchored by Saudi Aramco’s workforce and supply chain, with the King Salman Energy Park (SPARK) industrial zone driving adjacent residential demand. Transaction volumes in the Al Khobar waterfront district grew 34 percent as luxury apartment developments attracted Aramco executives and contractors.
Emerging markets: The remaining SAR 48 billion (15.9%) is distributed across secondary cities including Madinah, Tabuk, Abha, and areas adjacent to mega-project construction zones. NEOM-adjacent land transactions in Tabuk Province showed the highest percentage growth nationally (78% YoY), though from a small base.
Property Type Analysis
Residential: SAR 198 billion (65.6% of total), comprising apartments (SAR 89B), villas (SAR 72B), and land for residential development (SAR 37B). The apartment segment grew fastest at 26.4% YoY, reflecting urbanization trends and affordability constraints that push buyers toward higher-density housing types. For tokenization, residential apartments in the SAR 500,000-1,500,000 range represent the sweet spot — sufficiently standardized for fractional ownership, with strong rental demand and manageable unit values.
Commercial: SAR 62 billion (20.5% of total), including office (SAR 28B), retail (SAR 19B), and mixed-use (SAR 15B). The office segment was transformed by the headquarters relocation mandate, with Riyadh office transactions growing 41 percent YoY. Grade A office space in the King Abdullah Financial District (KAFD) commands SAR 2,800-3,200 per square meter — premium pricing that generates attractive yields for tokenized commercial offerings.
Land: SAR 42 billion (13.9% of total), primarily undeveloped plots purchased for future residential and commercial development. Land transactions are speculative and carry different risk profiles than improved property — tokenized land offerings require different disclosure frameworks and investor suitability standards.
Tokenization Market Sizing
Applying a conservative tokenization penetration assumption of 2-5 percent to the addressable transaction volume (residential and commercial improved property, excluding raw land) yields a tokenized Saudi RE market size of SAR 5.2-13.0 billion ($1.4-3.5 billion) within 36 months of regulatory clarity. This positions Saudi Arabia as potentially the second-largest tokenized real estate market globally, behind only the United States.
The addressable volume for tokenization is growing faster than overall market volume because: institutional-grade properties (which are most suitable for tokenization) are the fastest-growing segment, mortgage market expansion creates leveraged investment opportunities that amplify tokenization demand, and mega-project completions are adding large volumes of new, standardized inventory ideal for fractional ownership.
Data Sources and Methodology
Transaction volume data is sourced from the Ministry of Justice’s real estate registry (official recorder of all Saudi property transfers), cross-referenced with REGA’s Wafi database for off-plan transactions and the Ministry of Housing’s Sakani performance dashboard for government-subsidized transactions. Price data is derived from recorded transaction values (not asking prices or appraised values), providing ground-truth market pricing that is more reliable than survey-based or listing-based price indices.
Price Segment Analysis for Tokenization
Understanding transaction distribution by price segment is critical for tokenization platform design — minimum token sizes, target investor profiles, and yield projections all depend on the underlying property price range.
Under SAR 500,000 (28% of residential transactions): Affordable apartments and older units in secondary locations. High rental yields (8-10 percent gross) but higher maintenance requirements and tenant turnover. Tokenization appeal: retail investor access at SAR 1,000-5,000 token minimums. This segment represents the highest-volume tokenization opportunity if CMA regulations permit retail token offerings.
SAR 500,000-1,500,000 (45% of residential transactions): The “sweet spot” for tokenization — mid-market apartments and townhouses with strong rental demand, manageable maintenance, and established price comparables. This segment includes the majority of Roshn community units, making it the primary target for institutional tokenization platforms. Token sizes of SAR 5,000-25,000 balance accessibility with meaningful investment.
SAR 1,500,000-5,000,000 (20% of residential transactions): Premium apartments and villas attracting accredited investors and family offices. Properties in this range typically offer lower yields (5.5-7 percent) but stronger capital appreciation driven by scarcity in premium locations (KAFD, Northern Riyadh, Jeddah waterfront). Token sizes of SAR 25,000-100,000.
Above SAR 5,000,000 (7% of residential transactions): Ultra-premium villas, penthouses, and heritage properties. Limited tokenization appeal due to thin secondary markets and highly individual property characteristics, though niche platforms targeting UHNW investors could tokenize these assets at SAR 100,000+ minimums.
Transaction Velocity and Liquidity Metrics
Saudi real estate transaction velocity — the rate at which properties change hands — provides a critical metric for tokenized RE secondary market development. The national average holding period for residential property is approximately 7.2 years (derived from repeat-sale analysis in the Ministry of Justice registry), but this varies dramatically by segment: investment properties in Riyadh average 4.5-year holding periods (reflecting active investor rotation), while owner-occupied homes average 12+ years.
Commercial property transactions are less frequent but larger in value. Average holding periods for institutional commercial assets (office, retail) are 8-12 years, with transaction volumes concentrated in Q1 and Q4 (fiscal year-end capital deployment by institutional buyers). This seasonality pattern should inform tokenized RE secondary market design — market maker capital requirements should account for Q2-Q3 volume troughs.
The Ministry of Justice processed over 365,000 individual real estate transactions in 2025 — an average of 1,000 transactions per business day. This transaction velocity, combined with Ejar’s 5.2 million active rental contracts, creates a deep data pool supporting tokenized asset valuation, yield projection, and risk modeling at a granularity exceeding most global markets.
Forward Transaction Volume Projections
Transaction volume projections for 2026-2030 incorporate several structural drivers:
Population-driven demand: Riyadh’s target of 15 million residents by 2030 implies 300,000+ new housing transactions annually in the capital alone, adding SAR 200-250 billion to annual national transaction volumes.
Mega-project delivery: As NEOM, Diriyah Gate, Red Sea, Roshn, and Jeddah Central deliver completed inventory through 2027-2030, transaction volumes will incorporate these new-to-market units. Conservative estimates project SAR 50-80 billion in annual mega-project transactions by 2028.
Foreign investment acceleration: Growing from $12.4 billion (SAR 46.5B) in 2025 to a projected $20-28 billion (SAR 75-105B) by 2028, driven by tokenization-enabled access and continued corporate relocation.
Mortgage market deepening: As mortgage penetration advances from 29.4 percent toward the 35 percent target, annual mortgage originations will increase from SAR 140 billion to an estimated SAR 200+ billion, financing additional transaction volume.
Combined, these drivers project national real estate transaction volume reaching SAR 400-450 billion ($107-120 billion) by 2028 — positioning Saudi Arabia definitively as the largest real estate transaction market in the Middle East and among the top 10 globally by transaction volume.
Transaction Volume and Tokenization Market Sizing
Saudi real estate transaction volume provides the foundation for tokenized market sizing. The relationship between total transaction volume and tokenizable volume depends on several filters:
Tokenization eligibility. Not all real estate transactions are suitable for tokenization. Eligible transactions include: institutional-grade residential (units in master-planned developments, apartment buildings), commercial office and retail, hospitality properties, and industrial/logistics facilities. Excluded from tokenization estimates: raw land transactions (30 percent of total volume), individual villa transactions below SAR 500,000, and government-to-government property transfers.
Tokenization addressable market. After applying eligibility filters, the tokenization-addressable market is estimated at SAR 180-220 billion annually (approximately 60-70 percent of total transaction volume). At progressive tokenization penetration rates:
| Year | Total Transactions | Addressable Market | Tokenization Penetration | Tokenized Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | SAR 320B | SAR 200B | 0.1% | SAR 200M |
| 2027 | SAR 350B | SAR 220B | 0.5% | SAR 1.1B |
| 2028 | SAR 400B | SAR 260B | 1.5% | SAR 3.9B |
| 2029 | SAR 430B | SAR 280B | 3.0% | SAR 8.4B |
| 2030 | SAR 450B | SAR 300B | 5.0% | SAR 15B |
These projections are consistent with the global benchmark analysis showing tokenization penetration reaching 3-7 percent of addressable markets within 5 years of regulatory framework establishment. For Saudi Arabia, the regulatory trigger event — CMA permanent licensing framework — is expected in H2 2026, making 2027 the first full year of licensed tokenized real estate operations.
The SAR 15 billion projected tokenized volume by 2030 would represent approximately $4 billion — positioning Saudi Arabia as the third or fourth largest tokenized RE market globally behind the US, and potentially ahead of Singapore and Switzerland depending on those markets’ growth trajectories.
Data Quality and Institutional Applications
Saudi real estate transaction data quality exceeds that of most regional comparators, providing a robust foundation for tokenized asset analysis. The Ministry of Justice captures every legally registered property transfer, including: property location (GPS coordinates), property type and size, transaction price, buyer and seller identity (anonymized in public data), financing structure (cash, mortgage), and transfer date. This comprehensive data — covering 365,000+ annual transactions — enables price index construction, yield analysis, and risk modeling at a granularity that supports institutional-grade tokenized investment decisions.
For institutional investors conducting due diligence, transaction data access is available through: licensed data providers authorized by the Ministry of Justice, REGA market intelligence reports, and independent research firms (Knight Frank, JLL, CBRE) that compile transaction data into commercial reports.
Developer Market Share and Concentration Analysis
The Saudi real estate market’s developer landscape is increasingly shaped by PIF-affiliated entities that are delivering institutional-grade tokenizable inventory at scale:
Roshn: PIF’s residential development subsidiary has delivered 6,000+ units across communities in Riyadh (SEDRA), Jeddah (Alarous), and the Eastern Province (Warefa). Roshn’s 100,000-unit development pipeline makes it the single largest source of standardized, tokenization-ready residential inventory in the Kingdom. Roshn units are built to consistent specifications with standardized floor plans — characteristics that simplify fractional ownership structuring and enable portfolio-level tokenization.
Dar Al Arkan: Saudi Arabia’s largest listed developer by revenue (SAR 8.4 billion in 2025), with active projects in Riyadh, Jeddah, and international markets (Dubai, Bosnia). Dar Al Arkan’s Tadawul listing provides financial transparency that supports tokenized offering due diligence.
NHC (National Housing Company): Government housing delivery entity operating affordable and mid-market developments. NHC’s annual delivery capacity of 30,000+ units serves the Vision 2030 homeownership target and creates a high-volume tokenization opportunity in the affordable segment.
The market concentration trend benefits tokenization: PIF-backed developers provide sovereign-grade construction completion assurance, standardized building quality, and transparent financial reporting. Tokenized offerings backed by PIF-subsidiary developments carry lower developer risk than comparable private-developer offerings, justifying tighter yield spreads and potentially enabling lower-cost capital formation that benefits both developers and token investors. The CMA’s sandbox participants have noted that institutional investors express stronger interest in tokenized positions backed by PIF-affiliated developers than in comparable private-developer projects — a preference that will shape the initial supply pipeline of Saudi tokenized real estate. Platforms evaluating development partnerships should prioritize Wafi-compliant projects with clear escrow structures and SAMA-regulated banking relationships.
See also: Riyadh Population Growth | Saudi Mortgage Penetration | Global Tokenized RE Benchmark | Vision 2030 Housing | Saudi RE Yield Analysis | Portfolio Construction | Saudi Commercial RE | Foreign Investment Flows
Updated March 19, 2026